The Muffin Post

Francis Anthony Govia

The Muffin Post

Somewhere in this big city of New York is a brilliant businessman with considerable resources at his finger-tips who aspires to be as successful as Bill Gates. He is expending all his considerable brain power and expertise to that effort of becoming peer to the second richest man on earth. At some time or another, he may come to realize that even a millionaire, or billionaire such as he, may not attain the loftier goals that he so cherishes. It is not to say that to become as rich or powerful as Bill Gates is impossible, just that men like him are few in each century. There are many things to consider, and many hurdles to overcome before that aspiration can be realized – a man’s aspiration may be larger than his ability, and even if he has the ability to work to achieve all his aspirations, there are actors whose purpose may be to prevent him from achieving them.

There are men in all corners of the globe who may tell you otherwise. They will tell you that your future is limitless, and depending on whom you are, that the mistakes that you make are excusable. There are people who will disguise what they really believe in innuendos. We have come to accept what people say on their face value, or at least learn to live through the lies and deceit indifferently.

Even when young soldiers’ lives are at stake, and the economic problems that we bear have resulted in an ever constricting middle class, we are reluctant to call a spade a spade. We allow men to stoke the public’s passion with messages of fear, and their views remain so unchecked, that we lose our capacity to reason as reasonable men would. There is an ex-Prime Minister who is guilty of this foolishness. His rhetoric is designed to have the President now withdraw the nation’s combat forces from Iraq only to engage them in an endeavor that will bankrupt the country, and deprive us of the very youth that should carry the future.

Tony Blair has told the world that Iran desires a nuclear bomb. In the Guardian, he stated his weighty opinion that the West should use force against Iran if it “continues to develop nuclear weapons.”

“I am saying that I think it is wholly unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapons capability and I think we have got to be prepared to confront them, if necessary militarily. I think there is no alternative to that if they continue to develop nuclear weapons. They need to get that message loud and clear.” Mr. Blair said.

The nation of Iran has steadfastly asserted its right to the peaceful use of nuclear technology under Article IV of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Further, it has stated that nowhere in its history has Iran attacked any nation in the UN.

Mr. Blair stated to the Guardian reasons why it is “wholly unacceptable” for Iran to have nuclear weapons. He implied a nuclear bomb in Iran’s hand could somehow be equated to 300,000 deaths in a September 11 attack on U.S. soil instead of “3000 killed in one day.” Secondly, “Iran with a nuclear bomb would mean others in the region acquiring the same capability; it would dramatically alter the balance of power in the region, but also within Islam.”

Does Mr. Blair expect reasonable people to believe that Iran, or its protégés would commit suicide by using a nuclear weapon to carry out an attack on U.S. soil? If that is the case, I suppose hawks such as Mr. Blair do not respect the U.S.’ ability to bring Armageddon on Iran and the whole of the Middle East (for that matter) if such an attack occurs.

A few nuclear weapons in Iran’s hands will only give it the capability of “war deterrence.” Iran will not gain the ability to project that power to match the U.S. hemispheric control. Further, it is firmly established that the enrichment process is the most demanding step in the production of nuclear weapons, and is beyond the technical capabilities of most non-state actors. No state has gone so far to master the enrichment of U-235 beyond 20%, used that highly enriched uranium (HEU) to make a nuclear weapon, only to turn that weapon over to non-state actors. That would be tantamount to putting your best weapons in some else’s control, and national suicide. Iran is unlikely to give its best weapons to a non-state actor.

Further, in spite of what Mr. Blair said, a nation’s aspiration to acquire a nuclear weapon capability and the ability to build a nuclear weapon are totally different things. Many of us are aware that there are technical hurdles to overcome and that the process is very expensive to enrich U-235 to the 95% level to make a proper nuclear bomb. While it is stated that Iran has the ability to enrich U-235 to near the level of 20%, and the possibility, once it has the desire and ability to master other technical hurdles, to make a rudimentary nuclear weapon, the example of Brazil shows that a nation may master the ability to enrich uranium near the 20% threshold, but that does not mean it will be able to produce a nuclear weapon.

Brazil has had the capability to enrich U-235 to near the 20% level since 1987. It exhausted considerable resources and talent to acquire a nuclear weapon, but some twenty three years later, it still has not produced the weapon. Read here. In fact, in the 65 years since the Trinity (Nuclear Test), only a few nations have mastered a home grown ability to manufacture nuclear weapons but if we are to listen to Mr. Blair (and hawks for war), we are to think that the steps to making and detonating a nuclear weapon are like a stroll through the park.

The thoughtful person should read between the lines to discover what is being disguised in the shrill voices for war. The Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) are dictating an addendum to the NPT. The NWS, which comprise the U.S., Russia, France, U.K. and China, wish to forbid certain nations (ones they consider a threat to their hemispheric control or regional interests) from mastering nuclear technology to the point of self-sufficiency. A nation that masters nuclear technology, and certainly the enrichment process, that sits within a geographic location or “heightened zone of interests”, is likely to be labeled a suspect for nuclear proliferation.

The Middle East is a heightened zone of interests to the U.S. So too, for that matter, are the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
Following Mr. Blair’s considerable opinion, the U.S. and its allies should go to war to prevent nuclear proliferation in Iran, which sits in the Middle East. Note that Mr. Blair has conveniently left out that Israel is an undeclared holder of nuclear weapons within proximity to Iran. Mr. Blair is also echoing Israel’s Prime Minister exact words that state that “Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is unacceptable.” Mr. Blair is assuming his customary role of being the trusted second to another world leader who stands at the podium.

Mr. Blair is the special envoy for the Quartet on the Middle East. His charge is to facilitate Peace. Yet he has no reservation in expressing his preference for war, and to urge that we unleash untold damage to a revered civilization and a world economy that could only result in the enrichment of oil companies in which Tony Blair has a vested interest. Read here. No one actually believes that Iran, should it acquire a nuclear weapon will use it to carry out an attack on New York. What friends of Israel truly fear is that Iran may one day possess weapons that will deter others from carrying out a preemptive attack against Iran. The friends of Israel disguise that argument in statements like “Iran with a nuclear bomb would mean others in the region acquiring the same capability.” Perhaps, Mr. Blair should agitate that the earth will be a safer place if all nations dispossess themselves of nuclear weapons.

The world is not going to wake up tomorrow and discover that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Oman, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have nuclear weapons because Iran has managed to enrich U-235 to the level where it can be used for medical research. Further, and duly noted, it is preferred that the nuclear armed nations dispossess themselves of nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, the reality is that the world has managed to cope and live without the use of nuclear weapons in war since the U.S.’ first use of it – and in spite of the ascension of nations such as China, North Korea, India, Pakistan and Israel to the nuclear club. At each step of the way nations that disapproved of those that ascended to the “club” had a choice to exercise their right to war but no nation pursued that course of action. They understood that the best alternative to war is containment, and after that, engagement through diplomacy and trade.

As most nations will find, their aspirations to obtain nuclear technology, master fuel enrichment, and build a nuclear weapon are not easily achieved. The nations that achieve the status of developing a home grown nuclear arsenal exist on a plateau akin to figures in society such as Carlos Slim, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Mukesh Ambani, and Lakshmi Mittal: they are within a peer group a cut high above the rest.

SOME RESOURCE MATERIAL:

• “Tony Blair: West should use force if Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons” by Mark Tran, Guardian.co.uk, September 1, 2010.
• “Treaty on the Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons”, International Atomic Energy Agency, INFCIRC/140, April 22, 1970.
• “Some Facts and Materials on the Peaceful Nuclear Program of the Islamic Republic of Iran” by H.E. Dr. Zarif, December 23, 2006.
• “Minimization of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) in the Civilian Nuclear Sector” by the Norwegian Project Secretariat.
• “Definition of Weapons-Usable Uranium-233” by C. W. Forsberg, C. M. Hopper, Oak Ridge National Laboratory*Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6180; J. L. Richter, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545; H. C. Vantine, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550.
• “Iran says it will make fuel for research reactor” by Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press, August 30, 2010.
• “Blair’s fight to keep his oil cash secret: Former PM’s deals are revealed as his earnings since 2007 reach £20million” by Jason Groves, The Daily Mail, March 19, 2010.
• Brazil and Weapons of Mass Destruction, GolobalSecurity.org.

Francis Anthony Govia received a Bachelor’s degree in International Relations at Boston University where he studied U.S. National Security and Foreign Policy with teachers who inspired him, such as General Fred F. Woerner (Ret.), Ambassador Stephen R. Lyne (Ret.), and Joseph Fewsmith. He received a law degree at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and is a contributor to Activist Post.